Update (2026/11/11): October CPI was released on November 10. Headline came in at +0.4% and core at +0.3%, both above forecast — and this article's central call held: the BLS published no annual rate. For the result and how the market repriced it, see What Is CPI? How October's Hotter-Than-Expected Print Reaches Your Stocks and Crypto.
October's Consumer Price Index is released Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET. It is the last inflation report before the Federal Reserve's December 8–9 meeting.
But this one is different: the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish a year-over-year rate. The number that normally gets quoted most and written into every headline simply will not exist tonight.
| Release | Nov 10, 2026, 8:30 a.m. ET |
| Headline CPI, month over month (consensus) | +0.3% (September: +0.6%) |
| Core CPI, month over month (consensus) | +0.2% (September: +0.3%) |
| Year-over-year rate | Not published this month |
| December hike odds | roughly 76–79% (Kalshi / Polymarket, Nov 9 snapshot) |
1. Why there is no annual rate this time
A year-over-year rate compares this month's index level against the same figure 12 months earlier.
The problem is last year. The US government shutdown in October 2025 meant the BLS could not collect price data for that month, and so could not compile a complete index level. With no October 2025 baseline, there is no comparable 12-month change for October 2026.
What prints tonight is the month-over-month change — October against September. Consensus is +0.3% headline and +0.2% core, both below September's +0.6% and +0.3%.
Some institutions fill the gap themselves. Bank of America interpolated the missing baseline and estimates October's headline rate at roughly 3.8% and core at roughly 2.7%, each 0.1 percentage point above September. To be clear: those are estimates, not official figures. Different firms interpolate differently and will land on different numbers. If you see a report tonight citing "3.8% annual," check who calculated it.
What this means in practice: tonight you are judging inflation on the monthly rate alone. Comparing a monthly rate directly against past annual rates tells you nothing.
2. What the market priced in before the number
For the December 8–9 Fed meeting, prediction markets put the odds of a quarter-point hike at roughly 76–79% (Kalshi and Polymarket, November 9 snapshots), while CME FedWatch showed above 80%. A hold sits at roughly 21–23%.
That share has been climbing. On November 2, Kalshi and Polymarket were both at 72–73%; after the October jobs report on November 6, they moved to 76.5%.
Two views worth knowing going in:
- Bank of America treats a December hike as the base case, and says only an "indisputably soft" 0.1% monthly print would likely change that. It also argues the larger variable is a selloff in financial markets, not this report.
- MUFG forecasts +0.29% headline and +0.23% core, and flags airfares, lodging and recreational services as likely to push October's core higher — tilting the risk toward a firmer print than consensus.
These are positions and forecasts taken before the data. They move with it. They are not outcomes.
3. A better-than-expected number and what the market does are two different things
Before tonight, look at this week's earnings. These are the seven companies that reported during November 2–6. Every one of them beat analyst EPS estimates. Four still closed lower on day one.
The "implied move" column is the move the options market priced in the day before each report. An actual move larger than that means the result surprised the market more than it had prepared for.
| Ticker | EPS beat | Day-one move | Implied move | Exceeded implied |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $SMCI | +41.4% | −5.70% | ±14.48% | |
| $APP | +6.7% | +31.04% | ±14.68% | ✓ |
| $QCOM | +0.46% | −9.49% | ±8.65% | ✓ |
| $ANET | +11.1% | +5.04% | ±9.28% | |
| $AMD | +7.2% | +1.01% | ±7.65% | |
| $PLTR | +8.3% | −1.65% | ±12.91% | |
| $AAPL | +3.0% | −1.90% | ±4.58% |
$SMCI beat by the widest margin and still closed down, ending the week off 12.72%. Only $APP and $QCOM moved more than the implied range, and they moved in opposite directions.
The days after the report need not match day one either. By November 6, $PLTR was down 10.07% from its pre-earnings level; $AMD rose slightly on day one and was still down 7.20% from pre-earnings by Friday.
An eighth case is in progress: $OXY reported after the close on November 9 with adjusted EPS of $1.91, beating consensus by about 30%, on revenue of $6.77B that came in slightly short. Its price reaction only becomes visible during Tuesday's session.
Carry that into tonight: a CPI print below consensus does not mean equities rise. Markets respond to the gap between the number and the position already taken — and right now that position is a 76–79% chance of a December hike.
4. Where the tape stands going in
Heading into tonight, the setup is "a sharp weekly decline, then a large Monday rebound." The two halves need to be read separately.
November 2–6: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 2.70% and the Nasdaq-100 ETF (QQQ) fell 4.98%, with the Fear & Greed Index at 22 (fear). AI hardware fell hardest.
| Sector | Nov 2–6 move | 5-day net flow | Days of net inflow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memory / storage | −23.75% | −$88M | 3 / 5 |
| Optical networking | −12.26% | +$1.01B | 4 / 5 |
| Oil & gas | −10.68% | −$606M | 1 / 5 |
| Semiconductors | −9.30% | +$4.02B | 5 / 5 |
| Software & enterprise tech | −1.85% | +$4.33B | 4 / 5 |
| Internet & consumer tech | −0.73% | +$2.86B | 3 / 5 |
| Consumer | +4.82% | +$1.87B | 3 / 5 |
"Net flow" here means aggressive buying minus aggressive selling on the exchange. The outlier that week was semiconductors: prices fell 9.30%, yet every one of the five sessions saw more money hitting the offer than the bid, totalling +$4.02B.
November 9 (Monday): the S&P 500 rose 2.35%, its largest single-day gain since April 8; the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.74% and the Nasdaq-100 rose 3.40%. All 11 S&P sectors closed higher. Chips led, with $AMD closing at $508.58, up 13.26%, and $MU at $733.15, up 6.25%. Seagate gained roughly 10%.
The sector that drew steady inflows the prior week is the same one that led Monday. But these are two facts from different dates, and they are not cause and effect: $AMD had two catalysts that day — an Oppenheimer upgrade and a Google Cloud chip selection — and $MU's bounce was attributed to a sector-wide recovery in memory names. One observation is also not a method.
Oil and gas is the pair that did not converge: on November 9, Brent fell 5.8% to roughly $92.57, while oil and gas equities closed higher alongside a broadly rising market. The commodity and the stocks moved separately those two days.
5. $NVDA was the exception in this rebound
On a day when nearly everything rose, $NVDA closed at $178.67, down 4.27%, the notable laggard. Volume reached 457 million shares, about 3.7 times its three-month average of 122.5 million.
What happened
On Sunday, November 8 (ET), NVIDIA's board issued a statement announcing that a committee of independent directors, working with outside counsel, would investigate CEO Jensen Huang's contact with a foreign intelligence effort. Huang sent a message to employees the same day acknowledging an affair with Alice Huang, a former Megaspeed executive.
The board's statement contains a second half worth reading alongside the first: the board said it has no reason to believe that national security or company secrets were compromised, and expressed confidence in Huang. The company also said he will continue to lead as CEO. Separately, members of Congress have asked him to explain the matter.
What the weekend looked like on-chain
US equity markets are closed on weekends, but the $NVDA perpetual contract on Hyperliquid keeps trading — so between the news and Monday's open, it was the only place with a live market quote.
| Timestamp | vs. Nov 6 close |
|---|---|
| Nov 8, Taipei afternoon (before the statement) | +0.17% |
| Nov 9, Taipei morning (after the statement) | −3.06% |
| Nov 9, US close (actual) | −4.27% |
Before the statement, the on-chain price was still above Friday's close; afterwards it turned negative. Monday's actual close fell further than the on-chain quote had.
To be explicit: this is a single observation. The direction matched and the magnitude did not, and it is not evidence that on-chain pricing predicts the open. A perpetual contract tracks the market's quote for the underlying, which can diverge from the opening price. The two are not interchangeable.
Positioning over the same window (comparing the October 31 and November 6 snapshots):
| Ticker | Nov 2–6 move | Open interest change | Funding rate (annualized) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $MU | −22.01% | +91.5% | 5.5% |
| $LITE | −35.94% | +70.7% | 5.5% |
| $DELL | −22.57% | +47.6% | 5.5% |
| $NVDA | −8.80% | +37.4% | 5.5% |
| $MRVL | −28.11% | +6.2% | −10.2% |
| $GOOGL | +1.77% | −27.0% | 5.5% |
Rising open interest only means more positions are open — it says nothing about direction, because every contract necessarily has one long and one short. $MRVL is the only name here with a negative funding rate, meaning shorts outnumber longs.
6. What to compare against once the number lands
These are observation points, not trade instructions.
- Where the monthly rate falls. Consensus is +0.3% headline, +0.2% core. Bank of America's bar for "indisputably soft" is 0.1%.
- Whether December hike odds move. They sit at 76–79% now. Prediction markets usually reprice within hours of the release — a more direct read than the tape itself.
- Who calculated any "annual rate" you see reported. The official release does not contain one tonight.
- Whether semiconductor inflows persist. Five of five days during November 2–6, and the sector led on November 9. Whether that continues says more than any single session's move.
- Whether oil and gas keeps diverging from crude. On November 9, crude fell and oil and gas equities rose.
Dates ahead: Nov 12, $AMAT and $CSCO report after the close; Nov 17, $NVDA reports — its first since the board announced the investigation; Dec 8–9, the Federal Reserve meets.
FAQ
Why does October CPI have no annual rate? Will it stay that way?
An annual rate compares this month's index level against the level 12 months earlier. The US government shutdown in October 2025 prevented the BLS from collecting data for that month, so no complete index level exists and there is no comparable baseline. This is a specific gap caused by the shutdown, and it works its way out as the base period rolls forward. It is not a permanent change.
What is the difference between +0.3% monthly and 3.8% annual?
Monthly compares this month with last month; annual compares this month with the same month a year ago. The monthly rate reacts quickly to recent changes but carries more noise; the annual rate is smoother but reflects 12 months of accumulated change. Tonight only the monthly figure exists, and Bank of America's 3.8% is an estimate built on an interpolated baseline, not an official number.
Why does core CPI exclude food and energy?
Those two categories swing widely and are often driven by weather and geopolitics, so short-term moves do not necessarily reflect the underlying trend in prices. Stripping them out gives a cleaner read on the direction of inflation, and it is the measure the Federal Reserve weighs more heavily.
What is the "implied move"?
The day before an earnings report or major data release, the options market implies a range for how far the price might move afterward. A larger actual move means the result surprised the market more than it had prepared for; a smaller one means the market was roughly positioned correctly. Only two of this week's seven reports exceeded their implied move.
How is "net flow" different from volume?
Volume is the total value traded, with no direction attached. Net flow is aggressive buying minus aggressive selling — an aggressive buy being a trade that lifts a resting offer. It shows direction, but not whose money it is, and it guarantees nothing about what happens next.
Why is there a price on-chain when US markets are closed?
The US equity perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid are derivatives and do not follow US trading hours, so when news breaks over a weekend or after the close, they are one of the few places with a live quote. But they track the market's quote for the underlying, which can diverge from the actual opening price. A perpetual contract is also not the same as holding the company's stock: it carries no shareholder rights, and it carries leverage risk.
Track these numbers yourself
Sector flows, open interest, funding rates and prediction-market odds all move continuously. You can follow them directly in the Nina app, or set a Sentinel — an alert that notifies you when any one of them crosses a threshold you choose, so you are not recalculating by hand every day.
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Check this article's data against the live readings
Sources: sector moves, net flows, open interest and funding rates are from the Nina US equity radar, covering 2026/11/02–11/06, with on-chain snapshots from 10/31 and 11/06 and additional $NVDA readings from 11/08 and 11/09 (Taipei time). November 9 US closing data, $OXY earnings, CPI consensus and Fed pricing are drawn from public reporting and market data, compiled as of the morning of 2026/11/10 Taipei time. On October CPI not carrying an annual rate, see CNBC (2026/11/09). For NVIDIA's board statement and Jensen Huang's message to employees, see CNBC (2026/11/08).
Nina is an information and analysis tool, not a licensed investment adviser. Nothing above constitutes a recommendation to buy or sell. The consensus figures, prediction-market odds and institutional forecasts cited here were taken before the data was released and will change with the market; refer to the latest readings in Nina. Derivatives trading carries leverage risk and losses can exceed your initial capital.
Nina is the Web3-native AI agent from Antalpha (NASDAQ: ANTA), covering crypto, prediction markets and US stocks: conclusion-first analysis with named sources and freshness badges, and Sentinel mode for round-the-clock monitoring. Vibe Trading, Nina's AI trading bot, turns a one-sentence trading idea into a rule-based bot that you backtest on historical data and then run in paper trading; live trading for Vibe Trading is not yet available. Backtest results are simulated on historical data and do not indicate future returns. Trades in the Nina app are signed by you in your own wallet by default (Verification-free ordering for Polymarket and perpetuals, which you turn on yourself, are signed by a key you authorized); Nina never holds your funds and takes no cut of principal or profits; a transparent routing fee applies on the execution path. Nothing here is investment advice or a price prediction. Official channels: antalpha.com, the Nina app on the App Store and Google Play, x.com/antalpha_ai.
